SA has potential, but the will must be there

GARDEN ROUTE | KAROO NEWS - The most likely future scenario for South Africa is the "lucky few zone", where only a small number of people can afford to live a high-end lifestyle, according to Dr Marius Oosthuizen, a futurist from Johannesburg.

Oosthuizen was guest speaker at a business breakfast of the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants (Saica) last week.

He spoke about the need for strategic foresight to plan for the future in a fast-changing world. The breakfast was held on Friday 23 September at Protea Hotel King George.

He said the "lucky few zone" is not a nice place to be, but South Africa is not unique in this as the emerging markets in the Global South look exactly like this. One of the worst case scenarios for South Africa is the "despair zone" which would emerge if we do not get the economy right.

"That is a little like the KZN environment (the plundering riots last year).

"If we do not sort out that 'despair zone', it does have the potential to escalate downwards into a 'breakdown zone'," he warned.

For the best case scenario - the "aspiration zone" - to emerge, South Africa has to deal with the energy and water crisis, political fracture, and the possibility of a fiscal crisis. He warned that the current structure of the economy is unsustainable.

The number of people depending on grants from the state (20 million) is three times the number of people earning an income in the private sector (seven million), who pay taxes to the state to pay the grants.

Those active in the informal economy are often productive, but the nature of that productivity is not value-generating for the country; it is only survivalist.

He said productivity must be increased if South Africans do not want to lose to the highly productive and focused Chinese and other similar groups. Strategic foresight must also be developed to help develop responsible business leaders to pursue the best possible future outcome.

In addition to getting the economy right, policy alignment and the development of a capable state are needed.

"If we do those things, there is huge potential in Africa for entrepreneurship and SMMEs."

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