ENVIRONMENTAL NEWS - Using novel high-resolution satellite data combined with field measurements and machine-learning models, the research team mapped aboveground biomass across Africa’s tropical forests, woodlands and savannas, tracking how that biomass changed over time. 

Their findings upend the prevailing view of Africa as a stable “lung of the Earth,” replacing it with a far more urgent narrative of ecological crisis.

From 2007 to 2010, Africa’s forests and woody savannas gained roughly 439 ± 66 teragrams per year (Tg yr?¹) of aboveground biomass evidence that trees and vegetation were accumulating carbon. But after 2010, the dynamic shifted dramatically. Between 2010 and 2015, biomass stocks declined at a rate of –132 ± 20 Tg yr?¹, amounting to a net loss of forest carbon. (Nature) From 2015 to 2017, losses continued at –41 ± 6 Tg yr?¹.

Most of the decline occurred in tropical “moist broadleaf” forests, the dense, carbon-rich woodlands of Central and West Africa, while some gains in savanna biomass only partially offset the losses, likely driven by increasing shrub encroachment rather than healthy tree growth.

In effect, what was once one of Africa’s most valuable climate-mitigation assets has become a growing source of carbon emissions.

Deforestation, degradation and shifting landscapes drove the shift

The study identifies deforestation and forest degradation as the main culprits. Across the Congo Basin, West Africa and Madagascar, rising rates of forest clearing — often for agriculture, logging, settlement expansion or infrastructure — have eroded the continent’s forest stocks.

Meanwhile, in savannas and woodlands, some increase in biomass has occurred — but it appears more tied to changes in vegetation structure, such as shrub encroachment, than genuine reforestation.

Scientists note that earlier estimates of Africa’s carbon balance had been inconsistent. Some painted the continent as a net sink, others a near-neutral zone and a few suggested the possibility of a shift to a source.

This new study — conducted with far denser spatial resolution and better validation — now provides the most robust continent-wide evidence yet of a tipping point.

The findings carry profound implications. Forests, especially tropical ones ,have long been counted on to absorb a significant fraction of global CO2 emissions, buying time for the transition to cleaner economies. With Africa’s forests no longer stable carbon sinks, that buffer is shrinking.

The authors argue that ongoing commitments under global climate frameworks, such as the pledged forest-conservation goals under the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use, must be treated as urgent imperatives.

They warn that as countries update their climate pledges, e.g. under Paris Agreement, the shrinking natural sink must be accounted for, or else global emissions targets may become unattainable.

For Africa, the consequences are particularly stark. The forests and woodlands now emitting carbon were once critical not only for climate mitigation but also for biodiversity, water regulation, livelihoods and ecological resilience. Their decline could trigger cascading environmental and social problems, from worsening droughts and soil degradation to habitat loss and threats to indigenous communities.

The study’s authors call for transformative policy measures. Stopping deforestation and implementing forest protection must be a top priority. But that alone will likely not suffice. Reforestation, restoration of degraded lands and support for sustainable land-use practices are urgently needed.

Impacts must also be factored more clearly into national and global carbon accounting. As the natural carbon stock erodes, countries relying on “forest sinks” to balance fossil-fuel emissions will need to revise plans, potentially raising the required pace of decarbonisation.

Finally, there is a clear call for global solidarity. Many African nations face economic pressure to clear land and exploit forests for development. International finance, climate-justice mechanisms, and support for green alternatives will be essential to balance development needs with ecological protection.

A wake-up call for Africa — and the world

This landmark study delivers stark news that Africa’s forests are no longer reliable allies in the fight against climate change. Instead, they’ve become carbon emitters, a shift that reverberates far beyond the continent.

For African nations, the message is clear. Forest-based climate strategies must be urgently reimagined. The path forward requires bold action in rethinking land use, investing in restoration, supporting vulnerable communities and demanding global accountability.

Because when the lungs of a continent begin to cough, the consequences echo around the globe.

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